The Donald Trump’s program for the 2024 U.S. presidential election begins saying: “America First: A Return to Common Sense.”
It is a powerful statement of intent from a figure who has sparked controversy time and again. Now, four years later, he is set to return to the Oval Office, reinforced and with Senate support at his side. This resurgence will undoubtedly impact global balances across all sectors, including the ones we frequently discuss: eCommerce, digital marketing, and emerging technologies.
Based on this program, his statements, and his past actions, here are some potential directions his administration may take over the next four years.
One of the most evident and probable outcomes of Trump’s return to the presidency is heightened protectionism and a reduction in imports. His program proposes high tariffs on foreign products and the re-establishment of critical supply chains within the United States. Additionally, the plan includes revoking China’s “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) status and gradually phasing out imports of essential goods from China.
When a country grants another the MFN status, it guarantees that it will receive the same tariff and trade benefits as other trade partners. This includes lower tariffs, fewer import restrictions, and more favorable market access.
By removing China’s MFN status, Trump’s administration would impose far stricter tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese goods, limiting their access to the U.S. market and raising their import costs. This strategy has two main goals:
This shift would significantly impact international trade and eCommerce, as the increased import costs would affect both American merchants and consumers, raising the final prices of imported goods. Products sold by platforms such as Temu, Shein, TikTok Shop, or AliExpress—companies that have expanded rapidly in the U.S. market due to their low-cost goods—would face considerably higher tariffs, directly affecting their business models, which rely on competitive pricing to attract U.S. buyers.
Currently, platforms like Shein and Temu benefit from the tax exemption for shipments valued under $800, allowing these low-value goods to enter the U.S. market without additional tariffs or taxes. If the MFN status for China is removed, it is likely that restrictions will expand for these low-value shipments, posing a further challenge for these eCommerce platforms.
Additionally, this policy could provoke a reciprocal response from China, impacting U.S. companies with interests in the Chinese market. This could include restrictions on technology products or measures that complicate operations for American brands in China, creating a less stable environment for businesses on both sides.
The impact of these policies would not be limited to Chinese companies. Spanish companies selling products manufactured in China to the United States, as well as other European Union exporters, would also feel the effects, especially if the U.S. enacts broader restrictions on EU-origin products.
The plan aims to turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower by incentivizing domestic production and protecting workers from foreign competition. “Buy American” policies will limit foreign companies’ access to government contracts and promote the hiring of American workers. This could reduce competition from imported products in the U.S. market, giving local manufacturers an advantage, but it may also complicate foreign companies’ access to the American market.
The program strongly opposes the creation of a centralized digital currency (Central Bank Digital Currency, or CBDC) and aims to protect the use and mining of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This stance supports the right to self-custody digital assets and conduct transactions without government oversight. The main beneficiary? Cryptocurrency commerce and eCommerce platforms that accept cryptocurrency payments, providing users with greater financial autonomy and privacy in digital transactions—a highly appealing feature for the digital marketplace.
In digital marketing, this policy could open doors to more cryptocurrency payment options for online retailers and inspire new marketing strategies aimed at users interested in financial privacy. This emphasis on decentralized digital assets may encourage a surge in cryptocurrency adoption, with businesses seeking to attract privacy-conscious customers in an increasingly digital economy.
Trump’s plan includes overturning regulations that, in his view, limited the development of artificial intelligence (AI) under the Biden administration: “We will repeal Joe Biden’s dangerous Executive Order that hampers AI innovation and imposes radical left-wing ideas on the development of this technology. Instead, Republicans support AI development rooted in freedom of expression and human rights.”
This approach to AI policy could accelerate technological innovation in the United States. With fewer restrictions, the country could see rapid growth in AI technology, benefiting companies that rely on AI to optimize their operations and marketing campaigns.
The major drawback? The concerns surrounding AI deregulation that could lead to dangerous applications for society in the pursuit of general AI—a stance that will likely conflict with the views of his ally Elon Musk. Musk, however, may concede upon seeing a point in the program that could clearly benefit his company, SpaceX: “Under Republican leadership, the United States will establish a strong manufacturing industry in low-Earth orbit, send American astronauts back to the Moon and then to Mars, and strengthen partnerships with the commercial space sector to revolutionize our ability to access, live in, and develop assets in space.”
Trump also emphasizes protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. Strengthening security standards and defending essential networks and systems from malicious actors will have a direct impact on cybersecurity across industries, including eCommerce. These new security measures could introduce more stringent requirements for digital platforms and increase accountability for cybersecurity service providers.
Trump’s relationship with leaders in the digital sector has generally been strained, except for his well-known alliance with Elon Musk. His interactions with prominent figures like Jeff Bezos, Amazon, Google, and Mark Zuckerberg have been marked by tension and conflict, driven by differing views on business practices, taxation, and freedom of expression.
For instance, Trump has frequently criticized Jeff Bezos, particularly because of his ownership of The Washington Post, which has published articles critical of Trump. Trump sees Bezos as using the newspaper to wield political influence and protect his own interests in Washington. He has also accused Amazon of not paying its “fair share” of taxes and of taking advantage of the U.S. Postal Service, claiming this places additional costs on taxpayers.
During his previous term, Trump attempted to influence the awarding of defense contracts involving Amazon Web Services. Additionally, he explored the use of antitrust laws to limit Amazon’s growth in the U.S. market, though these initiatives did not ultimately materialize.
Trump’s relationship with Mark Zuckerberg has also been contentious. Although Zuckerberg met with Trump multiple times during his presidency, Trump has openly criticized him for what he perceives as censorship of conservative voices on Facebook. Trump and other conservatives have accused Zuckerberg of influencing elections through donations to local election departments during the pandemic—often referred to as “Zuckerbucks.” Trump views this as an interference in electoral processes in favor of Democrats.
The tensions escalated further when Facebook suspended Trump’s account following the events at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. In response, Trump has threatened to impose regulations to limit the power of social media platforms, with Zuckerberg and Meta as key targets for these potential restrictions.
Donald Trump has also had a turbulent relationship with Google, accusing the company of censorship and political bias in its search results. Trump and other Republican leaders claim that Google manipulates its algorithms to display negative information about him and to suppress conservative content. While these allegations lack conclusive evidence and have been denied by Google—which asserts that its algorithms do not favor any ideology—Trump has remained critical of the company.
During his presidency, Trump explored the possibility of regulating or penalizing Google for these alleged practices and even considered antitrust measures to limit its influence in the information market. Now, in his 2024 campaign, Trump has renewed his intention to investigate and potentially prosecute Google, reiterating that its policies are harmful to conservative users.
Image: Flux Schnell
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